Julie Robinson, CEO of the Independent Schools Council (ISC), has voiced concerns over the decline in pupil numbers at independent schools following the introduction of the VAT on fees policy.
Speaking to The Sunday Times, Ms Robinson highlighted findings from a survey of 1,150 schools conducted by the Independent Schools Council (ISC), which revealed a decline of 16,696 students in the year to last month. This marks a 3.6 per cent drop, the largest since records began in 1982. The survey reported a 4.5 per cent decrease at girls’ schools, 3.6 per cent at co-educational schools, and 2.7 per cent at boys’ schools. Ms Robinson told the paper: “The data indicates that numbers are worse than the government predicted and budgeted for, and there will also be increased pressure on state schools as a result.”
This is a somewhat predictable outcome that most independent experts in the sector anticipated. It is possible that even the government ministers knew (although you can never be sure) and still went ahead for populist reasons.
Overall, Julie Robinson, chief executive of the ISC, has highlighted figures showing almost 25,000 pupils have been forced out of independent schools since the general election – significantly more than previously predicted. Speaking to The Telegraph, Ms Robinson said: “The decline in pupil numbers since the general election is now at least 25,000 – over eight times the fall the government predicted by this point. The government had previously claimed they expected only 3,000 independent school pupils to leave the sector.
“It is clear their sums do not add up on this policy, particularly when you take into account that this poll represents only open schools and so will not reflect the pupils displaced from over 80 mainstream independent schools that have closed in the past academic year.”
The decline in pupil numbers has likely led to a drop in fee income in the hundreds of millions.